Why Warner is better than the other "usual suspects".
There have already been a plethora of lists of potential 2008 Democratic candidates that have been bandied about. Here's my take on the "usual suspects":
1. Hillary Clinton. You think gay marriage mobilized the Republican base?
2. John Edwards. I like Edwards. I supported him for the nomination this year. He has the Southern appeal and is more of a gifted communicator than Warner. But he did come off as somewhat lightweight during the campaign. It seemed like the worm turned for me, at least in my perception of him, at the convention. His speech was disappointing, and his lack of experience and gravitas suddenly seemed cast into relief for me. He did nothing to make North Carolina close (Bush won by the same 56-43 margin), which tells me he'd have a hard time carrying his own state (and which also tells me he probably would have lost to Burr if he ran for re-election). And now his part on a losing ticket takes off some of the luster as well. Don't get me wrong - I probably think he's the best hope of the Democrats outside of Warner. But he's my second choice right now.
3. Barack Obama. Let's let him serve a term in the Senate first.
4. Bill Richardson. He's got the resume, and he's Hispanic, but he doesn't come across as real telegenic or appealing. He'd probably put New Mexico back in the Dem column, but it's only 4 EVs.
5. Howard Dean. Yeeeeaaaaaghhhhh! He'll make a great DNC chair. Except for Edwards, my rule of thumb here is that anyone who lost to Kerry this go-round shouldn't be nominated, so no Wesley Clark, etc.
6. Mike Easley. Dem governor of NC who won re-election this week. Easley has a similar (if not better) resume than Warner. But NC is a tougher state to flip, and Easley is pretty deficient in the charisma department.
7. Evan Bayh. I like Evan Bayh, and he holds some potential appeal. But he's a senator (I know, it shouldn't be fatal, but it is a strike against him), and Indiana is so red I wonder if he could really swing his own state. He'd solidify the midwest, but I wonder how he would play in the South. Still, I'd say he's my third choice.
I'm sure there are others...feel free to list them in the comments, so I can take a shot at shooting them down.
1. Hillary Clinton. You think gay marriage mobilized the Republican base?
2. John Edwards. I like Edwards. I supported him for the nomination this year. He has the Southern appeal and is more of a gifted communicator than Warner. But he did come off as somewhat lightweight during the campaign. It seemed like the worm turned for me, at least in my perception of him, at the convention. His speech was disappointing, and his lack of experience and gravitas suddenly seemed cast into relief for me. He did nothing to make North Carolina close (Bush won by the same 56-43 margin), which tells me he'd have a hard time carrying his own state (and which also tells me he probably would have lost to Burr if he ran for re-election). And now his part on a losing ticket takes off some of the luster as well. Don't get me wrong - I probably think he's the best hope of the Democrats outside of Warner. But he's my second choice right now.
3. Barack Obama. Let's let him serve a term in the Senate first.
4. Bill Richardson. He's got the resume, and he's Hispanic, but he doesn't come across as real telegenic or appealing. He'd probably put New Mexico back in the Dem column, but it's only 4 EVs.
5. Howard Dean. Yeeeeaaaaaghhhhh! He'll make a great DNC chair. Except for Edwards, my rule of thumb here is that anyone who lost to Kerry this go-round shouldn't be nominated, so no Wesley Clark, etc.
6. Mike Easley. Dem governor of NC who won re-election this week. Easley has a similar (if not better) resume than Warner. But NC is a tougher state to flip, and Easley is pretty deficient in the charisma department.
7. Evan Bayh. I like Evan Bayh, and he holds some potential appeal. But he's a senator (I know, it shouldn't be fatal, but it is a strike against him), and Indiana is so red I wonder if he could really swing his own state. He'd solidify the midwest, but I wonder how he would play in the South. Still, I'd say he's my third choice.
I'm sure there are others...feel free to list them in the comments, so I can take a shot at shooting them down.
posted by Steve at 7:07 PM
10 Comments:
Phil Bredesen? Governor of Tennesee?
Not easy to flip, but he had a 72% approval rating in Feb. and even the Heritage Foundation likes him.
In addition to Warner, I really like Evan Bayh. He's not charismatic, but he's not dull and is very telegenic. He's highly intelligent, but he doesn't come across as a pedant. Of all the Dem politicans I know, Bayh is easily the best spoken and most articulate of them all.
And keep in mind that Bayh was also a two-term governor, so the "Senators can't win elections" axiom may not apply.
Bill Richardson should not be on the short list for 2008. He's a bright, versatile and wonderfully skilled policy guy, but he's got some personal issues that would be a concern. These didn't matter when he ran for Governor of NM, but they would invariably come out in a national campaign.
The fact that Warner's term ends in 2008 is not necessarily bad for his Presidential aspirations. True, he would no longer be able to "demonstrate leadership" through a political office, but he also would not have to contend with accusations that he was running around campaigning instead of "doing his job.
Warner's term ends about the time that serious candidates for 2008 need to start organizing/campaigning. Upon leaving office, he could disappear for a period of "personal reflection." Upon re-emerging, he could recount how he traveled to the middle east--including Iraq and Israel--and Afghanistan, talking to the troops and leaders on the ground and what he had learned about how we can do a better job in these places (naturally, this list of destinations may expand/contrast in the next two-years, but I am sure you get the idea). Such a trip could help bolster his foreign policy credentials.
He could also draw upon his personal wealth and connections to help establish organizations/initiatives, or fund existing ones, that conduct research and present solutions on issues voters care about in swing states like the Midwest (loss of manufacturing jobs and how to employ laid-off factory workers) and the southwest (immigration). For example, given Warner's background in business, it would be a natural fit for him to sponsor job-training and placement programs in conjunction with his business contacts. Such a move could add to his economic credentials, while sending the message that this Democrat does not always rely on government to solve every problem.
Having worked directly for Mark in 1993, I can say that he has a political savvyness that dwarfs the other names mentioned here. About the only thing the republicans can attack his his self made millions (didn't see to hurt GWB) and some of his extremely close relationships to the NOVA liberal Dems like Moran, et al.
Nominate Hillary?
*barf*
I don't know if I agree with Warner on everything (guns, death penalty, etc.), but he's probably the Democrat with the best chance of getting elected. I also think that Tom Vilsack, the governor of Iowa would be the best choice for his running mate. Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota almost went to Bush in '04, and it looks like Iowa did. With Warner taking Virginia and West Virginia and Vilsack guarding the Midwest, the Democrats can win without Ohio or Florida.
Mark warner has a 70 % approval rating here in Virginia .
He could easily bltch slap that Bushbot apologist George Allen But Why bother ?!
Go for the big stuff !
America desperately needs a fresh start *
Mark Warner is the answer :) I swear I am going to put a bumper sticker on my car ! and I have NEVER !! done this ... EVER ~
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