More media talk.

Here's a blurb from the Washingtonian:

Until November 2, Virginia governor Mark Warner was hoping to challenge Virginia senator George Allen in 2006.

But friends of Warner’s are urging him to think bigger because of two political facts of life. The only two Democrats to win the White House since Lyndon Johnson have been Southern governors. And Warner is the only Southern governor thought to have the skills, smarts, and money to follow the Carter-Clinton model.

Don’t be surprised, Warner associates say, if Warner starts accepting early speaking engagements in Iowa and New Hampshire.

That would be a telltale sign of where he might be headed, so if any of you Virginians who see him on a daily basis get wind of such a trip, let us know!

Happy Thanksgiving.

There wasn't a lot to be thankful for in this year's elections, but regardless of that outcome, most if not all of us have family and loved ones to be thankful for. And it's for them that we try to make the world a better place. And if we didn't do achive that goal at the ballot box this year, we'll damn sure do it in 2008. Happy Thanksgiving to all of you out there.

The marketplace speaks.

Well, sort of. You can buy a Warner For President 2008 bumper sticker from the DemStore. As a measure of Warner's popularity, note that the only other prospective 2008 candidates for whom bumper stickers are available are Hillary, Edwards, and Wesley Clark. Here's a look at the bumper sticker:



There's also a button available, as well as a yard sign, although the example given looks like something left over from his gubernatorial run. Plus, it's a bit early to be putting up a yard sign.

Ask him to run.

Chris K. had a good suggestion: those of us who want to see the Governor run in 2008 should contact him directly and urge him to do so, preferably via snail mail. Email is fine, but regular old-fashioned mail always carries more weight. Here is a letter that Chris sent, as an example:

Dear Governor Warner,

Shortly after John Kerry conceded the election, speculation began on who would succeed him as the 2008’s presidential nominee.

The Democratic name that pops up the most and the front-runner of the race is, of course, is Hillary Rodham Clinton. A Gallup poll conducted from November 7 - 10 showed that Hillary Clinton is leading the pack for the nomination, with a plurality – 25 percent - of the vote among Democrats, and if it came down to a contest between her and John Edwards, she would handily beat the North Carolina Senator 55-39%.

Nominating her in 2008 is a recipe for disaster. She's a Northeastern liberal Democratic who, just like Dukakis and Kerry, will get her ass handed to her in the general election.

First of all, a Hillary nomination would galvanize the Republican Party and bring them together like never before. Except maybe for her husband, there is no one Republicans loathe more. Her nomination would unite the party and inspire thousands of Republicans to sponsor voter-drives, organize, volunteer, and donate. They would fight like hell, orchestrating an all out right-wing offensive, doing whatever it takes to keep her out of the White House. Hillary can't win the 2008 Election.

But you can.

First of all, America has a strong record of electing governors. Four of the past five presidents all ran as successful governors, and both of the modern Democratic presidents - Clinton and Carter - were accomplished Southern governors, just like yourself. If you campaign on your centrist record of moderate policies that appeal to conservatives and liberals alike, fiscal conservatism, and your strong role as chairman of the National Governors' Association who balanced the state's books, and reached across party lines to work with the Republicans in clearing away the state's debt, you can win the Election.

You'll appeal to traditionally Democratic regions such as the Left Coast and the Northeast, as well as the moderate Midwest, and the more conservative South and Rocky regions. If you could win in a state as red as Virginia, you can win anywhere. By far, you're the most electable Democrat in the country.

I implore you to please run for the White House in 2008.

Something along these lines, perhaps also pledging support and asking the Governor to keep your name and contact information on file for future volunteer work should he decide to run would be a good idea. The Governor's contact information is:

Governor Mark R. Warner
State Capitol, 3rd Floor
Richmond, Virginia 23219

Phone: (804) 786-2211
Fax: (804) 371-6351

Let him know you have his support!

It's a sign!

So here I am at lunch, making a grilled cheese sandwich, and what appears to me in the toast? I tell you, it's a sign he should run for president.



I wonder what I could get for this on eBay.

"Stay involved...stay engaged".

These were Gov. Warner's words to the Virginia Democratic Party today, in a surprise visit to the state party's central committee on Saturday.

"We have to be proud; we have to be strong. . . . Never ever, ever give up," Warner said. "We do not have to take a back seat to anyone on the questions of values and faith," he added.

Amen.

#1 on Yahoo.

This site is listed first if one searches "Warner for President 2008" or some variation thereof.

Unfortunately, a similar search on Google puts this site on Page 18, although the WaPo article that cited this blog is listed first.

Still, not bad for a blog that didn't exist 17 days ago. Thanks to everyone who's visited, commented and linked to this site. I hope to continue to keep this site worth visiting.

Tonight I'm Gonna Party...

...like it's 1986.

Yes, it was the year we Floridians elected the legendary Bob Graham to the Senate, and it was my third year at the University of Florida College of Law, but it was also the last time the Florida Gator football team won at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee against the hated Seminoles.

Until tonight.

Only the guys at fireronzook.com wanted him gone more than me, but I'll give the man his due - tonight he did something Steve Spurrier could never do. Maybe it's not too late to register the domain name rehireronzook.com.

(Yes, this post has nothing to do with Mark Warner, but this football game tonight was the happiest I've been since the election.)

Draft Warner action on the Internet.

The grassroots are growing:

* A draft Warner site has been started.

* A couple of Draft Warner groups have also started on Yahoo, for those who might be interested in joining.

If anyone has any more sightings of Warner sites or mailing lists, please let me know.

More handicapping from TNR.

The New Republic today has a rundown of what they call the "second tier" of 2008 Democratic hopefuls. Warner is included in this batch, and here's what they (actually Reihan Salam) have to say:

The Virginia governor has hardly gone unnoticed (yes, we're cheating by including him on this list) but it's safe to say that he ought to be noticed more often. He's very clearly positioning himself for higher office--serving as chairman of the National Governors Association doesn't hurt--and while he's not yet in the first tier of would-be presidential candidates, he soon will be.

Best known for his rural appeal, partly a function of his willingness to conspicuously embrace conservative positions on gun rights and abortion, Warner is the first Democrat to be elected governor of Virginia since his mentor, L. Douglas Wilder, another moderate with national ambitions. After Wilder left office, his brief presidential run having fizzled, Republicans, including the very popular George Allen, dominated state politics for the next eight years.

Despite Warner's whisker-thin victory in 2001, Republicans continue to hold a firm grip on the legislature and the state's electoral votes, the increasingly leftward tilt of northern Virginia notwithstanding. Like Bredesen and Easley, Warner has been swimming against a Republican tide. Perhaps his major accomplishment was to split Virginia's Republicans down the middle, with zealous anti-tax rebels on one side, working against him, and pragmatists from infrastructure-hungry growing suburbs working with him, cooperating on various "pro-business" initiatives.

However promising Warner may seem, there are serious risks. He is, for one thing, a self-made multimillionaire with a degree from Harvard--shades of Bredesen. But when not combined with Bredesen's self-effacement, this isn't always political gold. Warner won the gubernatorial race by spending massive amounts of money against incumbent James Gilmore, who had grown catastrophically unpopular in his own party and endured a bitter Republican primary battle. Warner won with a margin far narrower than he had anticipated. This was partly attributable to the 9/11 attacks, which happened two months before the election, but also to the strength of the state GOP and Warner's own weaknesses. Just as Wesley Clark, a charismatically challenged cerebral type, was no plainspoken Eisenhower, Warner is not the second coming of Bill Clinton by a longshot. That said, he's won some tough battles and is worthy of consideration.

Overall Grade: B+
Things to Work On: *

The asterisk under things to work on correlates to a cutesy list of "areas for improvement"; in this case it means "Try growing a personality in the lab, with the aid of revolutionary advances in stem-cell research." Warner gets one of the highest grades of the group, but Salem is highest on Tennessee governor Phil Bredesen, who gets an A-, albeit with the same asterisk Warner received.

Some love from the Wall Street Journal.

The Note, snarky as usual, includes the following tidbit today:

The Wall Street Journal's Gerald Seib endorses Gov. Mark Warner to lead the Democratic revival. How would one do that, you should ask?

"The first step, [Warner] says, is to get to the center on social issues — gun rights and abortion in particular — so they don't overshadow everything else."

If this isn't the high-water mark of Warner '08, we wonder what will eventually constitute that.

All I can say is stay tuned, Noters, stay tuned.


Another bleg: The WSJ online is a pay site, to which I don't have a subscription. If someone would be kind enough to Email me (flalaw@aol.com) a copy of the article, I'd like to quote from it more (I won't reprint it in full).

UPDATE: Apparently this article was WSJ's freebie of the day. The full article can be found here. It's a nice article (and it's nice to have the feature in one of top circulated papers in the country), but it doesn't tread much new ground.

Some inspirational words from Gov. Warner.

From the 2003 Jefferson-Jackson dinner in Mississippi, via a post on Daily Kos:

And since then, a lot of them have asked me, Mark - Why exactly are you a Democrat?

And I just smile. Because if you have to ask, you wouldn't understand.

Amy Tuck clearly wouldn't understand.

I am a Democrat because since Jefferson wrote the Declaration of Independence - and since Jackson spoke for the common man - our party has never been the party of the status quo.

Instead, we have been the ones to see a challenge - and do something about it. Let's be honest - it hasn't always worked perfectly. Sometimes it has gotten us in trouble. Sometimes it has split us apart. But sometimes, those are the wages of progress.

And yet, I am a Democrat because the greatest and most noble political experiments of our time had their birth in our party.

I am a Democrat because the New Deal literally saved the lives of hundreds of thousands of Americans.

I am a Democrat because a generation after a Democratic president started the Peace Corps, you can still find faded photographs of John F. Kennedy on the walls of homes from South Africa to South America.

I am a Democrat because fighting for working men and women is always the right fight.

I am a Democrat because our party led the struggle for civil rights - in the tough places like Virginia and Mississippi - and because we recognize that discrimination and bigotry are not dead - and that we must continue to seek equal opportunity for all.

I am a Democrat because despite our failures, our missteps, and our excesses - we know that waging a war on poverty does not mean fighting the individuals who are poor.

I am a Democrat because we know that today's battle is about the future versus the past - and it's time to put aside yesterday's battles of us versus them.

I am a Democrat because we know that criticizing success won't create a single job.

And most of all, I am a Democrat because when my three daughters go out into the world to make their lives, I want them to find a world where there's less hopelessness - less selfishness - and less violence.

I want them to find a world where there is more opportunity - more understanding - and more hope.

That is the mission of this party.

That is what we work for.

That is why we get up every morning.

That is why we're here tonight.

And our work is not done.

Please read the full post on Kos for more on this speech.

Go away for a few days, and you miss your 15 minutes of fame.

What can I say? I've been extremely busy at work (I have my own law practice) and outside of work as well (I was away at a wedding most of this past weekend), so I haven't had time to do much with this blog in the last 5-6 days. So what do I miss? This blog being cited in a Washington Post article on Warner, and in the first graf no less:

Web surfers at a site called the Democratic Underground think Virginia Gov. Mark R. Warner should be their party's next presidential candidate. So does a guy named Steve, who has started a "Warner in 2008" Internet journal. And among political pundits and the soul-searching leadership of the Democratic Party, Warner's name keeps popping up.

This article, the best to date on Warner's prospects (and I don't say that just because I was cited), also adds this on the blog:

Another Web site, warner2008.blogspot.com, went up days after the election. The site's author, who identifies himself only as "Steve," writes enthusiastically about Warner, saying that he "sponsored a NASCAR vehicle, used a bluegrass song as his campaign theme, and managed to retain core Democratic values without alienating rural voters."

Guess I should have identified myself a little more explicitly on the site: "Florida attorney Steve Ferra" would have sounded a little more impressive than just "Steve", but nonetheless I'm flattered by the recognition. To paraphrase Lloyd Bridges in "Airplane!", it looks like I picked a bad week to start neglecting my blog.

P.S.: If anyone has a print copy of the WaPo article, please let me know - I'd love to get one. UPDATE: One's on the way. Thanks, Bob!

Ron Brownstein's on board.

The LA Times' Ron Brownstein is one of the nation's foremost and influential political reporters, and in his where-do-the-Democrats-go-now column of yesterday gives our man a mention:

That imperative seems certain to raise the 2008 profile of Democrats who have won elections in regions the party needs to put back into play — such as governors Tom Vilsack of Iowa (the rural Midwest), Bill Richardson of New Mexico (the desert Southwest) and especially Mark R. Warner of Virginia (the South).(emphasis added)

Brownstein's mentioning of Warner was even noted in The Note, ABC News' uber-insider political daily. The mention of Warner by Brownstein and The Note will undoubtedly further raise his profile within what the Note likes to call the "Gang of 500", the political and journalistic elite who shape political news coverage.

They did all but mention Warner by name.

John Judis and Ruy Teixiera, writing in The New Republic, had this to say in an election post-mortem:

Kerry, an aloof New Englander, operated at a distinct disadvantage among white, working-class voters. Unlike Bill Clinton, he had trouble convincing voters that he "felt their pain." In interviews conducted on the eve of the election, we asked white, working-class Bush supporters in Martinsburg, West Virginia, what they thought of Clinton. Even those who praised Bush for his "family values" said they had voted for Clinton and thought he was an "excellent president." But it wasn't Clinton's politics they preferred; it was Clinton himself, despite the Monica Lewinsky scandal. Gore had exactly the same problem with these voters in 2000. The Democrats need to find a candidate that can talk to both PhDs and tractor-trailer drivers.

If they do this, the Democrats will be able to win presidential elections. Kerry, after all, came very close to winning this time despite his inadequacy as a candidate. Democrats showed that they can hold their own in states like Colorado (where Democrat Ken Salazar was elected to the Senate), Arizona, Nevada, and Virginia. In many of these states, demography is on the Democrats' side. Colorado is going to become more like California and less like Utah or Montana, and Virginia is going to become more like New Jersey and less like South Carolina.

The Democrats need someone who "can talk to both PhDs and tractor-trailer drivers." Demography is on the Democrats' side in Virginia. Gee, I wonder who would fit the bill here?

A potentially more-appealing first lady.

I don't think anyone who followed the campaign can disagree with the thought that Teresa Heinz Kerry was a net negative to the Kerry campaign. Whether it's fair or not, she was viewed as quirky, too outspoken, and exotic. She also didn't help matters either with her "real job" remarks about Laura Bush as well. It's very doubtful THK went over well in the red states or the redder swing states.

Lisa Collis, on the other hand, Gov. Warner's wife, seems to be the ideal first lady in terms of her background. She was born in Pensacola, Florida, grew up in a Navy family, went to college in Texas, and has done some impressive charitable work. She comes off as quite appealing, and would be a net plus to a Warner campaign.

Props from the Bull Moose.

Marshall Wittman is one of the more respected political minds on both sides of the aisle. Wittman was former director of communications for John McCain, and worked in the Bush 41 administration, as well as for the Christian Coalition and the Heritage Foundation. But that was in a previous life. Wittman gradually became disillusioned with the right, and now has become a senior fellow at the Progressive Policy Institute. His (relatively) new blog, The Bull Moose, has become a must read, given his perspective from both sides of the aisle. He made this reference to Warner:

As the Moose has mentioned, Democrats need a major overhaul. They cannot concede the south and expect to lay claim to the White House and Congress any time soon. Organization is fine - ideas and message are far superior. It also wouldn't hurt the donkey to get in touch with rural voters and the exurbs - Virginia Governor Mark Warner can be helpful with that.

Not quite a presidential endorsement, but an astute observation of one of Warner's strongest assets.

The Richmond Times-Dispatch weighs in.

Good article here. The best quote:

Thomas J. Lehner, director of policy for the influential Business Roundtable, said Warner is among the "new faces" who could lead a Democratic comeback at the presidential level.

"When you look at the last three Democratic presidents - Lyndon Johnson, Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton - they were all Southerners. And Mark is in that mold: pro-death penalty, fiscal conservative, low tax, NASCAR, pro-gun ownership - the whole nine yards. In America in 2004, that's the kind of Democrat who's needed to win the red states," said Lehner, who served as chief of staff to former U.S. Sen. Charles S. Robb, D-Va.

The "pro-death penalty" part I could do without, but one has to be realistic. The perfect is the enemy of the good.

Why Warner is better than the other "usual suspects".

There have already been a plethora of lists of potential 2008 Democratic candidates that have been bandied about. Here's my take on the "usual suspects":

1. Hillary Clinton. You think gay marriage mobilized the Republican base?

2. John Edwards. I like Edwards. I supported him for the nomination this year. He has the Southern appeal and is more of a gifted communicator than Warner. But he did come off as somewhat lightweight during the campaign. It seemed like the worm turned for me, at least in my perception of him, at the convention. His speech was disappointing, and his lack of experience and gravitas suddenly seemed cast into relief for me. He did nothing to make North Carolina close (Bush won by the same 56-43 margin), which tells me he'd have a hard time carrying his own state (and which also tells me he probably would have lost to Burr if he ran for re-election). And now his part on a losing ticket takes off some of the luster as well. Don't get me wrong - I probably think he's the best hope of the Democrats outside of Warner. But he's my second choice right now.

3. Barack Obama. Let's let him serve a term in the Senate first.

4. Bill Richardson. He's got the resume, and he's Hispanic, but he doesn't come across as real telegenic or appealing. He'd probably put New Mexico back in the Dem column, but it's only 4 EVs.

5. Howard Dean. Yeeeeaaaaaghhhhh! He'll make a great DNC chair. Except for Edwards, my rule of thumb here is that anyone who lost to Kerry this go-round shouldn't be nominated, so no Wesley Clark, etc.

6. Mike Easley. Dem governor of NC who won re-election this week. Easley has a similar (if not better) resume than Warner. But NC is a tougher state to flip, and Easley is pretty deficient in the charisma department.

7. Evan Bayh. I like Evan Bayh, and he holds some potential appeal. But he's a senator (I know, it shouldn't be fatal, but it is a strike against him), and Indiana is so red I wonder if he could really swing his own state. He'd solidify the midwest, but I wonder how he would play in the South. Still, I'd say he's my third choice.

I'm sure there are others...feel free to list them in the comments, so I can take a shot at shooting them down.

Welcome!

This blog (the first of its kind?) is here to tout the potential 2008 presidential candidacy of Virgnia Governor Mark Warner. John Kerry put up an admirable fight this year, and he had my wholehearted support, financial and otherwise. This was not Dukakis in 1988 or Mondale in 1984. He gave as good as he got. But Kerry's problem was that he didn't have crossover appeal. He couldn't make inroads into the red states (New Hampshire really doesn't count). It was a cultural thing, and although he came close, he probably wrung out every electoral vote humanly possible for a liberal from Massachusetts.

It's no secret that the template for successful Democratic presidential candidates in the last 35+ years has been a simple one: Governor of a Southern state. Jimmy Carter did the trick in 1976, and Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996. The only route to the White House these days is either as a governor (Carter, Reagan, Clinton, Bush 43) or sitting VP (Bush 41) There hasn't been a senator elected since Kennedy in 1960.

And this is where Gov. Warner comes in. In 2001, Warner defied the odds in the traditional Republican stronghold of Virginia and won the governorship relatively handily. The most impressive statistic in his election is that he took 51% of the rural vote. Warner was a (very) successful venture capitalist before entering politics (a real business success, not a failed one), and he understood that he had to make a rural appeal to win. Warner sponsored a NASCAR vehicle, used a bluegrass song as his campaign theme, and managed to retain core Democratic values without alienating rural voters.

And Warner has remained very popular in Virginia, with a 61% approval rating. He even managed to win a $1.4 billion budget-balancing tax increase from a heavily Republican Legislature, which provided an unprecedented spending boost for public schools, long-deferred state employee pay raises and new money for law enforcement and colleges.

Virginia has a quirky law that prohibits a governor from running for consecutive terms, so Warner will be out of a job next year. There's a lot of talk he may run for George Allen's senate seat in 2006, but he might be better served by testing the waters for a presidential run. As long as he remains this popular, he should be able to swing Virginia's 13 electoral votes if he's nominated, there's no reason he would lose any blue states, and his rural appeal should put Iowa back in the Democrats' column as well. He also would run stronger in the South, and could potentially swing Florida, Arkansas or North Carolina.

What I hope to do in this blog is to follow any nascent Warner-For-President talk in the media and blogosphere at large, and create a place for others who might see the same potential in Warner to enjoy.